12:04 |
: Welcome to SzymChat! Now, we should have had baseball this week, but at least we’ll have it next Thursday instead of , say, nothing until 2023!
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12:04 |
: What’s for lunch?
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12:04 |
: Probalby some leftover pizza.
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12:04 |
How worried are you about Bellinger not being able to hit ? |
12:04 |
: Quite. There were already reasons to be worried
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12:05 |
: And while spring training doesn’t mean a LOT, Rosenheck showed some years ago that it means a LITTLE of something
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12:05 |
: and Bellinger did not have a good spring training
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12:05 |
: Do you know if the fan projections will be happening this year on Fangraphs?
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12:06 |
: I have no specific info, but I don’t believe so.
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12:06 |
: Not sure
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12:06 |
: The lockout stuff has made the schedule a nightmare
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12:06 |
: Does Shane Baz go to the mlb or milb IL? He’s on the 40 man but could get optioned first?
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12:07 |
: Injured players aren’t supposed to be option
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12:08 |
: I believe — but do not have the language in front of me — that to option a player to have to have no service time the previous year and not be a Rule 5 pick, and then there’s only a window at the start of the season to do that
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12:09 |
: There are too many ways to manipulate service time and salary with injuries by allowing options
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12:09 |
: Over/Under on Pujols’ HR total for 2022? 9.5?
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12:09 |
: I’d probably take the under because I think he’s more likely to be a 150-200 PA special
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12:09 |
: I don’t think the Cards are going to play him aggressively
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12:10 |
: Have you locked in and over/under RSWs yet?
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12:10 |
: No. This spring has been a frantic one and I just don’t have the bandwidth right now to site down and evaluate bets.
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12:11 |
: Do you buy that Alex Bregman will never return to his ’18-’19 numbers because his power was based on launch angle instead of velocity and he needed the juiced baseball?
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12:11 |
: Now, it’s quite possible that he just peaked — 24/25 year olds hit their peaks more often than people think
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12:12 |
: But the evidence since then is so mixed and you have externalities like COVID year screwing things up and injury
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12:12 |
: What are your expectations for Alejando Kirk’s playing time?
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12:13 |
: I think he may end up with the most total PA of the catchers, simply because you can justify using him some at DH.
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12:13 |
: My guess is that the Jays are hoping for one of their catchers to finally CLEARLY look a superior option to the others.
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12:14 |
: There’s not a lot of time to figure out who these guys are before Gabriel Moreno starts pounding on the door
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12:14 |
: Do you know what’s up with Seiya Suzuki’s ZiPS projection? Your article on him in February included a pretty encouraging line, but his ZiPS DC projection has him at a 68.
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12:14 |
: The ZiPS DC projeciton is all messed up
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12:15 |
: There isn’t actually ZiPS in the system yet (though there ought to be as early as today) for Suzuki, by an oversight (I didn’t send David players without an MLBAM ID at the time.). So the method David uses messed things up with Suzuki and ZiPS. You’ll notice that only Steamer is used for the projection itself!
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12:16 |
: No sleeper columns this year? I was looking forward to them
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12:17 |
: They’re going to be first week of the season content – I’m locking in the names before opening day and it’s not like a few games would put people on or off a list
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12:17 |
: Again, a product of the schedule
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12:17 |
: There’s an idea out there that teams with tons of depth and relatively flat rosters (i.e. a smaller gap between their best and worst players) can reliably outpace projections, as they’re more adaptable to in-season misfortune. If true, is that something that could be accounted for somehow?
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12:17 |
: It depends on the approach.
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12:17 |
: ZiPS tries to take this approach – it doesn’t assume a roster will be healthy. I talk about this in the ZiPS Intro!
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12:18 |
: either to the projections themselves or to the lockout standings
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12:18 |
: The hardest thing is *in-season* changes
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12:19 |
: Not surprisingly, the teams that ZiPS has underrated the most in 17 seasons are the teams that have made the most in-season moves to add talent
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12:19 |
: (The Yankees and Astros are at the top of underrated)
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12:19 |
: That doesn’t mean ZiPS is PERFECT, beacuse you can always improve a model
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12:20 |
: One thing I’m very happy about is there no year-to-year correlation for individual teams on miss.
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12:21 |
: And if you just look at individual teams, that still holds true (though 17 is a little light for pearson)
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12:21 |
: I think the Mariners had the highest year-to-year in miss correlation and the r^2 there was like 0.04
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12:21 |
: Saw Burnes had 17 starts on 5 days rest and 9 on 6 days…was that a luxury for Milwaukee or will most teams have 1 or 2 guys they will try to use similarly going forward?
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12:22 |
: I think teams were extra careful last year coming off a shortened season!
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12:22 |
: Especially when they have the luxury of depth
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12:22 |
: Nightengale is reporting that Preller is dangling his “pitching depth” (Weathers and/or Paddack) in trade talks. Am I crazy or is the team that resorted to signing Jake Arrieta last year still not very deep? How much stock can you put in a guy returning from TJ and 9 good innings of spring ball from Mackenzie Gore?
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12:23 |
: They added Nick Martinez too and he’s really interesting given his improvements in Japan (including a better fastball(
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12:23 |
: No, the padres don’t ahve perfect depth because nobody does
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12:24 |
: But the question is: is the pitching depth such that you can’t trade any for a player at positions with considerably *less* depth?
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12:24 |
: So yeah, you’d prefer not seeing a pitcher traded. But if it gets you a replacement at 1B/LF/RF, can you really justify hanging onto, say, your 8th best starter?
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12:24 |
: When will ZiPS be updated for players on new teams?
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12:25 |
: I sent David an update at 2 AM last night! He’s got a ton on his plate to take care of, so I don’t know exactly when it will be in the system
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12:25 |
: How long does it take for comments on articles to be approved? And why is there wait?
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12:25 |
: It depends. Comments with link have to be approved generally.
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12:26 |
: And some changes were made so that a person’s first ever comment had to pass through moderation. We’ve had a lot of increase in spam
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12:26 |
: There was a problem a couple weeks ago in which everyone was going through moderation
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12:26 |
: We also have a handful of bad actors who just aren’t allowed to comment.
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12:26 |
: Do you think the league will ever take any hard action against teams tanking for pure profit like the Reds did this offseason? I feel like they’ve made it pretty clear that they don’t care unless it affects the value of the team, like when McCourt broke the Dodgers into multiple companies to take out loans against each of them. Even then they only stepped in because his divorce threatened to split up those companies.
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12:26 |
: No.
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12:27 |
: Without the divorce, McCourt might still own the team
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12:27 |
: Do you think projected standings fail to account for a manager’s impact? (if there is one) Specifically in tightly-projected divisions like the AL and NL easts, is there a world in which the difference between say, Cora and Boone, or Snit and somebody else makes up a projected-WAR gap?
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12:27 |
: They do, but it’s very tricky. Evaluating a manager is a very difficult thing to do because data for it generally sucks.
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12:29 |
: im assuming there are rules that prohibit this but could Mets, another team and conforto do a sign and trade to reduce or eliminate the QO penalty I assume he’s struggling with? The LF list alone shows how much teams could use him. He’s better than 90% of that list if not the entire list. Even coming off a down season. That seems ridiculous but that list is oof.
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12:30 |
: It sucks for Conforto, but MLB is quite strict about shenanigans here
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12:31 |
: There are rules again QO “understandings” and the commish has wide authority to punish teams playing games
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12:31 |
: What’s more likely: Marlins boom or bust?
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12:32 |
: Possibly a boom if they can get enough offense somehow
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12:33 |
: I really like their rotation’s potential
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12:33 |
: With all the Rookies appearing to be making the opening day rosters, who does this change the super two date?
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12:33 |
: I’m not going to venture a guess until we can actually estimate
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12:33 |
: Have the Yankees officially turned a corner on their budget? It feels like after the Braves snagged Olsen they had no plan B to improve the offense, even with a lot of good free agents available.
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12:33 |
: I honestly don’t know where the Yankees thinking stands right now
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12:33 |
: Zimbobski! It’s back! Draft day is Saturday. The sun is in the sky. Mike Trout is healthy! And I should really skip pitchers for the first two rounds of my shallow H2H points league, right? right?
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12:33 |
: I try to unless there are some crazy good values
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12:34 |
: I’ve heard it said that while defensive metrics are improving, they are still imperfect. What do you think are the biggest inefficiencies with guys like OOA, UZR and DRS?
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12:34 |
: I don’t think there’s any SPECIFIC inefficiency, it’s just that the basic challenge is so hard
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12:35 |
: The basic problem is that you’re not counting events, but events something someone PREVENTED from happening.
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12:35 |
: Sure I could just check the ZiPS but…are you personally high or low on Jarred Kelenic this season?
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12:35 |
: I’m personally higher than ZiPS
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12:35 |
: over/under Julio Rodriguez HR 9.5 for 2022 ?
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12:36 |
: I’ll take over. I think he’s making it really hard for them to keep him down long
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12:36 |
: I know in the past you’ve mentioned you’ve gotten some not so nice comps, like Shrek or Herman Goering. I know who I would be calling when they cast the lead of the inevitable Ridley Scott directed ZiPs biopic: Michael Chernus
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12:36 |
: It’s not a bad choice!
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12:37 |
: It’s not one I thought of. It might be the closest one yet
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12:37 |
: I’m pickling vegetables later for a camping trip. Red onion, cucumber, and jalepenos are guaranteed. Should I try celery just for the hell of it?
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12:38 |
: I guess you could. But why? It’s not such a great veggie!
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12:38 |
: Pickle some eggs!
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12:38 |
: Want some out of the box things that are really good to pickle?
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12:38 |
: Cherries
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12:38 |
: radishes
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12:38 |
: make some kimchee!
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12:39 |
: What age do sports writers peak?
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12:39 |
: 50 I hope
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12:39 |
: Is a positional adjustment and valuing offensive runs above average better than no positional adjustment and valuing offense runs above the position’s average? Doesn’t the latter provide a more fluid adjustment that would be more accurate season-to-season rather than a static adjustment that can become less accurate over time?
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12:40 |
: I’m not QUITE following – if I’m reading correctly (and I may not be, I didn’t get much sleep and i’ve got a headache), it’s mostly an accounting difference that you can deal with in either scenario
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12:40 |
: Oh, you mean have a more dynamic positional adjustment?
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12:40 |
: We’ve actually had discussions about going toward that approach
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12:40 |
: who hits more HR this year, Kelenic or Julio ?
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12:40 |
: Probably Kelenic
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12:41 |
: Your comment about 24 year olds being at their peak is troubling
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12:41 |
: Hey, I’m going to be *44* in June!
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12:41 |
: I’m still trying to figure out HTF that happened.
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12:41 |
: Cameron and I were once the young guys in the sabermetric community
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12:41 |
: Do you have special post-Coors effects built into ZIPS for ex-Rockies?
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12:41 |
: No. The Coors Hangover is real, but it’s SMALL and real.
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12:42 |
: “The ZiPS DC projeciton is all messed up” Is that the techinal term?
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12:42 |
: And some of it is people being over-obsessed with a player’s individual home/road splits rather than the overall seasonal line adjusted for park effects.
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12:42 |
: What would you put on a FanGraphs city connect jersey?
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12:42 |
: we’re officially a northern virginia company!
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12:43 |
: So wait, is Zips DC messed up for all players?
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12:44 |
: Nope, just Suzuki
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12:44 |
: You can’t always improve a model. Kate Upton is already an 11.
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12:44 |
: There’s 12
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12:44 |
: and 13.
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12:44 |
: Now, if she was a 24, 24 is the highest number.
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12:44 |
:
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12:45 |
: Hi Dan. Thanks for the great work & for managing to always include something funny. I’m wondering whether–in addition to in-season player acquisitions–ZIPS more commonly misfires with very old or very young teams. There’s been a lot of talk that the Yankees’ age makes their projections shaky; same with a young team like the Royals or Tigers, with a bunch of players who could pop. Any truth to this? That young or old teams are more likely to skew projections?
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12:45 |
: I wish this kind of calibration was a problem! It provides an avenue for improvement.
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12:45 |
: Now, there’s naturally more *variance* in certain teams.
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12:46 |
: But we’ve ironed out the kinks!
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12:46 |
: Guess that this is something you might not be able answer but is everything alright at fangraphs? The the pace of articles this spring seems to be…muted vs past years with essentially zero spring training coverage
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12:46 |
: The problem is that the timing of the lockout has messed up the schedules for everything.
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12:46 |
: For example, you’d normally have four articles from me this week on breakouts and busts.
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12:48 |
: But the late free agency and the timing of the season – and a number of ZiPS-related tasks that cannot simply be done until a certain part of the spring – has thrown everything into chaos
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12:48 |
: The changing of timing and less knowledge from what teams are doing with prospects causes problems for Eric and the prospect bunch
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12:48 |
: And the lack of knowledge about what team WILL actually look like has hurt general preview type stuff
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12:49 |
: does zips take into account draft status for young prospects? you wrote in the zips top 100 introduction that those rankings are only based on pro ball results. I have a hard time believing Marcelo Mayer’s FCL performance alone was enough to get him to #23?
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12:49 |
: ZiPS does not.
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12:49 |
: Blue Jays C with the most ABs this year even if some come as DH?
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12:50 |
: The question is – is the label of a player more static or dynamic?
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12:50 |
: If I say which Yankees great has the most home runs, does not mmean career homers of a player who WAS a yankees great, or only WHILE he was with the Yankees?
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12:50 |
: Recently, it seems like the best position players from Japan have struggled more than expected (i.e. Yoshi Tsutsugo, Shogo Akiyama). Since ZiPS uses player comparisons for its projections and given the small number of position players from Japan, do they make a material difference in future projections?
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12:51 |
: Not so much simply because there’s also a lot of incoming and outgoing on the minor league level
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12:51 |
: Some players have done better too!
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12:51 |
: But the failures look worse because the general variance is higher
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12:52 |
: A follow-up to my question on flat rosters: part of the idea there involves not just injury but performance. Projections assume an average number of PAs for everybody and an average level of performance. In reality, the guys who outperform their projections get more PAs and the guys who underperform theirs get less, if you have the depth to do that. That strikes me as harder to account for than injuries.
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12:52 |
: That *is* a problem, of course.
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12:52 |
: There are a lot of soruces for error that you can’t do much about
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12:52 |
: Minor league being a thing helps.
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12:52 |
: Since the full-timers that struggle will frequently get more time at a lower level
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12:52 |
: “Evaluating a manager is a very difficult thing to do because data for it generally sucks.” Unless it’s Mike Matheny, then you just subtract 5 wins ±2 and you’re good to go.
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12:54 |
: One of my favorite quips is that Matheny’s bullpen management is basically throwing a hundred spiders into a kindergarten class
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12:54 |
: Have you taken a look at the article by Jacob Herlin on FantasyPros about the most accruate projection systems for 2021? ZiPS was 14th out of 17.
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12:54 |
: I have not, but I’m surprised it would be *THAT* high. ZiPS is specifically not a playing time predictor, while fantasy projections absolutely *ARE* playing time dependent.
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12:55 |
: Ariel Cohen’s done work on this with ZiPS which you can see here on this very website!
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12:56 |
![]() |
12:57 |
: If you draft, say, Langeliers high based on his projection in fantasy, you’re not using ZiPS correctly!
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12:58 |
: That’s why we started offering a ZiPS version that matched DC playing time
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12:58 |
: A friend of mine described skyline chili as “an acquired taste but good actually.” What is the appropriate way to end this friendship?
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12:58 |
: I think you should help stricken friends rather than abandon them!
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12:59 |
: Personally I think Dan’s closest comp is a young Brad Pitt (if this doesn’t get my comment posted nothing will)
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12:59 |
: Why do ZIPS offensive projections change based on a player being at different positions? I noticed this with Trevor Story as a 2B versus as a SS.
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12:59 |
: Slightly different group of comps. Not using positional comps *has* made projections worse.
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12:59 |
: The LF rankings suggest that Dom Smith is blocked at DH by Cano. Is that just guesswork at this point?
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12:59 |
: You’d have to ask Jason, but I’d guess yes
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12:59 |
: What’s a team that you are confident beats the ZIPS win total and a team you are confident loses more than ZIPS projects? Don’t count tanking teams as obviously they will sell off parts at deadline
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1:00 |
: I don’t think they’ll match last season or come close, but I think the Giants will be create inseason and beat their ZiPS
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1:00 |
: I think Reds fall short – it’s likely they’re disappointing any resume dumping this summer
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1:00 |
: Do elite athletes age differently than the rest of us or is it more a difference in how closely their aging is watched?
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1:01 |
: Well, they train better so I would imagine their peak is longer and later
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1:01 |
: We actually already made Kimchee (2 kinds), but I’ll try the pickled cherries for sure. Fox Sports picked the Mariners to win the AL West this year. It sounded silly to me at first but the more I thought about it I couldn’t dismiss it entirely. Do you think the Mariners have improved that much?
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1:01 |
: I think they’ve improved, but I think the Astros are still better even without correa
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1:01 |
: I noticed the ZiPS projections used in the player positional ranks are not the same as the ZiPS DC ones accessible in the Projections tab. Altuve for one has the same number of PA but his overall WAR is 4.0 in the player projections and only 3.7 WAR in the ZiPS DC tab. Are we to assume the player positional rankings info is more up to date and will makes it way into the system with this most recent update you sent in?
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1:02 |
: The positional ranks are ZiPS *and* Steamer!
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1:02 |
: More importantly, what is the best lunch to reheat and why is it leftover chili?
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1:02 |
: chili is a good lunch to reheat because cold chili is weird
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1:02 |
: I mostly like meat leftovers cold
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1:02 |
: pasta too, I dont’ want cold pasta
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1:03 |
: Were you surprised at how low the Rockies’ left field protection was?
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1:03 |
: No
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1:03 |
: I understand why you’re holding off on publishing the sleepers, but please share a nugget or two! Need to know who is in that 2020 Shane Bieber/2021 Kyle Schwarber zone of “identified by Szym as a likely star but I can still get him cheap in my draft”. Waiting until after the games start is too late!
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1:04 |
: I think Brendan Rodgers could have that HUGE breakout with the Rockies no longer messing with him it appears
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1:04 |
: though rockies go early in drafts for obvious reasons
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1:05 |
: Kikuchi’s on my breakout list for sure
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1:06 |
: Would the Rockies be better off if they were run by Inspector Clouseau? And why is the answer yes?
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1:06 |
: They’d be better off run by Inspector Gadget.
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1:06 |
: and that’s WITHOUT Penny and that weird computer book.
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1:06 |
: On that note, it’s time for me to head out for another week!
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1:06 |
: Thanks for coming everyone.
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1:07 |
: Bye Dan, enjoy another week of being the foremost digital dandy
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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
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